Seminar on Methods for Managing Deep Uncertainty in Planning for Sustainable Transport: Results from MUST phase 1
The MUST project explores methods like Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) to complement traditional planning in the transport sector. In this seminar, we'll share Phase 1 findings, including a literature review on uncertainty in transport planning, insights from workshops, and a case study applying DMDU methods. Join us for a straightforward discussion and a Q&A session.
Time: Wed 2023-11-22 12.00 - 13.00
Location: ITRL, KTH Main Campus, Drottning Kristinas väg 40, and on Zoom
Video link: https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/65010716851
Language: English
Participating: Albin Engholm, Peter Smeds
As the pace of technological and societal development accelerates, the transport sector faces a complex landscape of uncertainties. These uncertainties are important, but challenging, to account for in transport planning, policy analysis and investment appraisals. Conventional transport planning often leans on forecasting methods which anticipate specific outcomes, but these might not fully account for the deep uncertainties accompanying the future developments in society, technology, and the economy.
The MUST project is aimed at enhancing Trafikverket’s (Swedish Transport Administration) ability to address and manage deep uncertainty in long-term analysis and planning for the future transport system. By exploring and developing tools and methods like Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), the project seeks to provide insights on how these approaches can be used as complements in model-based planning and analysis for situations with significant uncertainty about the inputs or behaviors of the system. In this seminar, we will present the research performed during Phase 1 of the MUST project. This includes:
- A literature review examining (deep) uncertainty in transport planning and its broader implications in decision-making
- A workshop series, collaboratively engaging Trafikverket experts and academic researchers to delineate challenges posed by deep uncertainty in long-term transport planning.
- A case study of DMDU methods where the Multiple Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) approach has been applied to analyze robust transport climate policies in the face of uncertain developments in the Swedish transport sector.
MUST project webpage: www.itrl.kth.se/research/ongoingprojects/must-1.1146492
Agenda
- 12:00-12:10 Introduction by Peter Smeds, Senior Analyst from Trafikverket
- 12:10-12:40 Methods for Managing Deep Uncertainty in Planning for Sustainable Transport: Results from MUST phase 1 by Albin Engholm
- 12:40-13:00 Q&A Session
Register for the seminar now: www.kth.se/form/6537a3c68133f15000fdf97a