Half-time seminar: Zeinab Raoofi

Title: System-level Impact of Electrification on the Road Freight Transport System: A System Dynamics Modelling

Opponent: Ehsan Shafiei, RISE

Supervisors: Anna Pernestål (KTH), Maria Huge-Brodin (LiU), Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

After the seminar there will be some food and drinks (a separate invitation will follow)

Abstract:

Road freight transportation is a significant contributor to global CO2 emissions, accounting for over 7% and is projected to reach 16% by 2050. Achieving sustainable transportation necessitates a shift towards fossil-free road freight, with electrification emerging as a pivotal solution. This thesis aims to investigate the system-level impacts of electrification on the road freight transport system.

The thesis starts by investigating how emerging technologies (Automation, Electrification, and Digitalization, or AED) affect the freight transportation system. Addressing two sub-questions, we explore how the system responds to emerging technologies and predict its future developments through morphological analysis. Further, we analyse the impact of electrification on road freight transport through a combination of system dynamics modelling and a multi-layer model.

Moving forward, the study delves into the transition of the freight transport system by the electromobility paradigm. The question is to understand the main barriers and motivations for electrification. Among these factors, charging infrastructure availability emerges as a pivotal concern. Our research aims to understand how charging infrastructure availability impacts the adoption of electric trucks, and how investments by the public and private sectors can shape a sustainable trajectory. To address this, a mathematical system dynamics model is formulated to explore the dynamics of the problem.

Future research will focus on the co-transition of transportation and energy systems. It should be a collaborative transition to a more sustainable future. The dynamic problem begins with charging infrastructure, progresses to grid upgrades, and then to electricity supply systems.

Key Highlights:

• Using morphological analysis to structure the future development of AED (Paper 1 & Report 1)

• Using System Dynamics modelling to understand the effect of electrification on the freight transport system (Paper 2 and Paper 4)

• Using System Dynamics mathematical modelling to explore the effect of the availability of charging infrastructure on e-truck adoption. (Paper 3)

• Using System Dynamics Mathematical modelling to explore the co-transition of the transportation and electricity energy systems. (Future study)

Publications:

• Paper 1: Raoofi, Z., Stenemo, E., Engholm, A. and Pernestål A. (2022). How can we structure the future development of automation, electrification, and digitalization in the transportation sector by using morphological analysis?, Transportation Research Procedia.

• Paper 2: Raoofi, Z., Huge Brodin, M., and Pernestål A. (2023). Investigation of system-level impacts of electrification on the road freight transport system: a System Dynamics approach, 35th Annual NOFOMA Conference, Helsinki, Finland.

• Paper 3: Raoofi, Z., Mahmoodi, M., and Pernestål A. (2023). What is the effect of charging infrastructure availability on electric truck adoption? An egg-chicken dynamics problem (to be submitted in November 2023)

• Paper 4: Raoofi, Z., Huge Brodin, M., and Pernestål A. (2023). System-level impacts of electrification on the road freight transport system: a dynamic approach (to be submitted in November 2023)

• Report 1: Stenemo, E., Raoofi, Z., Engholm, A. and Pernestål A. (2021). Prestudy on System Level Impacts of Automation, Electrification and Digitalization for Long-term Transport Analysis and Planning, Trafikverket report.